After thinking about how much I enjoyed the “luck” analysis that Robbie does over in the DSL, I decided to adopt the same type of system for the MiLF for the coming season. After building out my tool, I began a process that you all know I love: mining through the data from previous seasons to gather data and statistics to use in new analysis.
As of right now, I’ve run the luck analysis through the first four seasons of the MiLF (2015 through 2018). I’ve got some ideas about ways I want to look at this data and use it once I have the full history run through it, but I thought I would spit out a few interesting tidbits at this early point for shits and giggles.
- All four champions of the league through the first four years fall within the top six slots on the historical luck chart (in slots 2, 3, 4, and 6). This doesn’t mean that these teams weren’t good without luck (except for Noll’s 2015 championship team), it just means that their actual season win percentage had a high positive variance from what might have already been a respectable win percentage when compared to every possible opponent week to week. In a lot of these seasons, the teams that were getting the luck didn’t necessarily need it.
- The luckiest team on the board so far is Bieber’s 2017 team that ended up finishing in 5th place after a loss in the first round of the playoffs. Bieber’s actual season win percentage was 81.25%, which was a positive variance of 26.37% when compared to his total win percentage (compared against every possible opponent week to week) of 54.88%.
- The luckiest championship team on the board is Bane’s 2018 team, with a positive win percentage variance of 20.73%.
- The unluckiest team on the board so far is Phil’s 2017 team that finished in 12th place (dead last). His actual season win percentage was a dismal 7.69%, reflecting a negative variance of 32.17% from his total win percentage (compared against every possible opponent week to week) of 39.86%. I mean, with a team that bad, it probably didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.
- The unluckiest team on the board where it looks like luck probably actually fucked up somebody’s season is Bane’s 2017 team that finished in 7th place, currently coming in at the second unluckiest team on the board. Bane’s actual season win percentage was 43.75%, which showed a negative 24.54% variance from his total win percentage of 68.29%.
I’ll share more as I work through it.
Troll tide, fellers.